BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Year Ahead Outlook

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research 2019 Year Ahead Outlook

BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research released its outlook for the markets in 2019, issuing a forecast of modest gains in equities and credit, a weaker dollar, widening credit spreads and a flattening to inverted yield curve, signaling a tighter squeeze on liquidity that calls for higher levels of volatility. This comes against a backdrop of slowing, but still-healthy economic growth; mild inflation, except in the U.S. where inflationary pressures are building; and a notable slowing in global EPS growth from the torrid pace of 2017 and 2018.

Two big themes are expected to affect asset returns and the pace of economic growth in 2019:

(1) an unprecedented level of global monetary policy divergence as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to hike interest rates and other major central banks don’t; and

(2) whether a strong U.S. economy decoupled from the rest of the world, particularly Europe and China, can be sustained. The answer to that question could depend on big wild card risks in 2019: resolution of the trade war between China and the U.S., an EU political/economic crisis, and political gridlock in the U.S. that could slow capital investments and deteriorate investor sentiment.

News Release and Additional Information

Press Release

Dec. 4, 2018 — BofA Merrill Lynch 2019 Market Outlook: From Peak to Trough, the Market Unfriends Stocks and Bonds, Likes Volatility, and Swipes Right on Cash


Additional Materials

Dec. 2018

        -   Commodities             -   Global Economics
  -   Credit Strategy   -   Investment Strategy
  -   Emerging Markets   -   Rates
  -   Environmental, Social & Governance                         -   U.S. Economics
  -   Foreign Exchange   -   U.S. Equity Strategy                       


For More Information

For more information regarding the BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research 2018 Year Ahead Outlook, please contact Melissa Anchan, Bank of America, 1.646.855.3152.